Personalis, Inc. (PSNL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue was $20.605M (+6% YoY) and diluted EPS was -$0.18; both beat Wall Street consensus of $17.415M revenue and -$0.25 EPS, driven by strong biopharma demand and VA MVP volume . Revenue consensus and EPS consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Gross margin improved to 35.0% (+690 bps YoY) on favorable mix; excluding unreimbursed clinical test costs, management said GM would have been ~43% .
• Clinical molecular tests delivered rose 52% sequentially to 2,184; management reiterated confidence in the “Win-in-MRD” strategy and expects reimbursement in at least two indications in 2025 .
• FY25 guidance largely maintained with notable tweaks: GM raised to 22–24% (from 21–23%), net loss reduced to ~$83M (from $85M), and cash usage trimmed to ~$75M (from $75–$80M); Q2 2025 revenue guided to $19.5–$20.5M .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Biopharma tests and services revenue grew 39% YoY to $13.6M, reflecting increasing adoption of NeXT Personal and ImmunoID NeXT among pharma customers .
• Gross margin rose to 35.0%, up 690 bps YoY; excluding unreimbursed clinical test costs, GM would have been ~43%, underscoring margin expansion potential post reimbursement .
• Clinical test volume surged to 2,184 molecular tests (+52% q/q), with high physician retention and strong Tempus collaboration; “We remain confident that our ‘Win-in-MRD’ strategy is working” .

What Went Wrong

• Net loss widened to $15.8M from $13.0M YoY; cash usage was $20.5M in Q1 as the company invested ahead of reimbursement .
• Enterprise sales and population sequencing/enterprise mix softened YoY (-29% for population+enterprise), reflecting expected Natera decline despite VA MVP contribution .
• Management flagged macro/tariff-related pressures causing $3–$5M of pharma projects to be deferred/tightened, tempering near-term visibility despite maintaining FY guidance .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, Gross Margin vs Prior Periods

Actual vs Estimates — Q1 2025

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Revenue Breakdown

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We achieved revenues of over $20 million this quarter and also delivered over 2,000 molecular tests… we are reiterating our guidance of $80 million to $90 million in revenue for 2025… and the achievement of reimbursement at least 2 indications in 2025.” — CEO Chris Hall .
• “Gross margin was 35%… In the first quarter, we saw an impact of approximately 8 percentage points to our gross margin due to unreimbursed clinical test costs. Excluding those costs, gross margin would have been approximately 43%.” — CFO/COO Aaron Tachibana .
• “We are encouraged by the preliminary results from the VICTORI study… NeXT Personal… detect residual and recurrent colorectal cancer at high rates in the early landmark window after surgery.” — CMO Richard Chen .
• “We remain confident that our ‘Win-in-MRD’ strategy is working.” — CEO Chris Hall .

Q&A Highlights

• Commercial ramp metered pre-reimbursement; Tempus accelerating, PSNL field team still small but ready to scale post reimbursement .
• CRC VICTORI study showed strong early landmark sensitivity (87%) and 100% pre-imaging detection, including distant lung metastases; supports future reimbursement submission pathway .
• ADLT status considered an upside, pursued after reimbursement; baseline economic model built on existing CMS pricing; targeted GM ~60% at reimbursement-level pricing with Tempus cost structure .
• Macro/tariffs causing $3–$5M of pharma project deferrals/tightening; despite this, FY25 revenue guidance maintained at $80–$90M given large biopharma funnel .
• Post-reimbursement commercialization plan: increase PSNL reps and leverage Tempus to move into higher gear; catch-up billing possible post coverage decision (typical ~60-day cycles) .

Estimates Context

• Q1 2025 beat on both revenue and EPS versus S&P Global consensus; # of estimates: 6 for both revenue and EPS, indicating reasonable coverage and likely upward revisions to revenue/GM assumptions given stronger biopharma mix . Revenue consensus and EPS consensus values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue $16.8M vs consensus $15.737M; EPS -$0.23 vs -$0.284; Q3 2024 revenue $25.709M vs $21.330M; EPS -$0.64 vs -$0.338—Q3 missed EPS but beat revenue, Q4 beat both, and Q1 beat both, demonstrating improving estimate momentum despite mix shifts . Consensus figures retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q1 delivered a clean top-line and EPS beat versus consensus; mix-driven GM expansion and strong biopharma demand were key drivers . Consensus figures retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Sequential clinical test volume growth (+52% q/q) and robust physician retention underpin the “Win-in-MRD” narrative; watch for reimbursement catalysts in breast, lung, and IO in 2025 .
• CRC VICTORI interim data (100% pre-imaging detection; 87% landmark sensitivity) broadens the clinical evidence footprint and future reimbursement optionality—potential multi-indication catalysis over 12–18 months .
• FY25 guidance intact; GM raised to 22–24% and net loss/cash usage trimmed—signal operational discipline while investing ahead of reimbursement .
• Macro/tariff headwinds in pharma (-$3–$5M timing impact) introduce near-term variability; however, Tempus channel acceleration and new $5M-class biopharma wins support second-half weighting .
• Q2 guide ($19.5–$20.5M) implies modest sequential downtick vs Q1 as enterprise/VA cadence normalizes; narrative remains focused on reimbursement-driven inflection later in 2025 .
• Post-reimbursement, management expects margin uplift (ex-unreimbursed GM ~43% in Q1) and revenue acceleration via scaled commercial resources—watch coverage decisions and any ADLT developments .

Appendix: Additional Press Releases Relevant to Q1 2025

• NeXT Personal detects 100% of colorectal cancer relapses ahead of imaging (VICTORI interim analysis; 71 patients; 87% detected in 2–8 week landmark window; 100% distant metastases including lung) .